Vikiliks nije objavio ime svog izvora, ali se vjeruje da je objavljivanje materijala povezano s hakerskim upadom na „Stratforov“ server u decembru 2011. koji je izvela grupa Anonimus.Mejlovi obuhvataju period od jula 2004. do decembra 2011. godine i pokazuju kako je „Stratfor“ imao mreže doušnika, strukture za davanje mita i tehnike za pranje novca po čitavom svijetu, pa i na Balkanu.
Ono što je američke obavještajce najviše interesovalo kad je riječ o Balkanu, jeste organizovani kriminal, zatim sukob Srba i Albanaca na Kosovu, neonacistički pokreti, protesti raznih grupa, pa i sindikata, operacije islamskih terorista i napadi vezani za drogu i oružje.
U jednom od objavljenih mejlova nalaze se uputstva kako pratiti situaciju na Balkanu. U njemu je Crna Gora označena kao zemlja koja se bavi organizovanim kriminalom, uključujući i njenu vladu.
- Put Crne Gore u EU veoma je interesantan, kao i to u kojoj mjeri je kriminalna vlada zainteresovana da zaustavi organizovani kriminal koji je pokreće – navodi se u jednom mejlu.
Vikiliks
VikiLiks (WikiLeaks) je internet platforma na kojoj anonimno mogu da budu objavljivani dokumenti za koje se pretpostavlja da bi mogli da interesuju javnost. Projekat "želi da pomogne onima koji razotkrivaju neetičko ponašanje vlada i preduzetnika." Za te potrebe je napravljen sistem koji omogućava potpunu anonimnost dostavljača.
VikiLiks je osnovan 2006. po principu Vikipedije. Za njega radi pet stalnih volonterskih saradnika i oko 800 privremenih. Glavni server se nalazi u Švedskoj. Po sopstvenim izjavama, VikiLiks su osnovali disidenti iz Kine uz pomoć novinara, matematičara i tehničara sa Tajvana, iz Evrope, Australije i Južne Afrike.
Dio dokumenta koji je objavio VIKILIKS vezano za stanje na Blakanu
Bezbjednost
Organizovani kriminal posebno da se prati:
• Hrvatska – visoka aktivnost
• Crna Gora – cijela zemlja je organizovani kriminal, uključujući Vladu
• Bosna – visoka aktivnost, povezana s Rusijom, tako da je dvostruko važna
• Albanija/Kosovo – pažljivo motriti aktivnosti Albanske mafije
Obratiti pažnju i na ostalo:
• Srbi na sjeveru Kosova, mogu da buknu bilo kada. Albanci u Preševu i Muslimani u Sandžaku (oba u Srbiji)
• Povećan broj neonacističkog nasilja, naročito u Vojvodini protiv Mađara (Srbija),
Hrvatska (protiv Roma i Srba)
• Protesti, nemiri, sindikalne aktivnosti… Oni nisu organizovani kao u Zapadnoj Evropi, ali štrajk albanskih rudara na Kosovu 80-ih godina na izvestan način je zapalio ceo region
• Bilo kakve neuobičajene radnje islamskih terorističkih grupa
• Napadi vezani za oružje i drogu
Inostrani odnosi
Posebno pratiti:
• Makedonija – problem s Grčkom
• Slovenija – problem s Hrvatskom
• Srbija – odnosi sa svima
Ruski potezi na Balkanu:
• Treba obratiti pažnju na bilo kakvo pripajanje energetskih kompanija u regionu
• Rusija daje zajmove regionu
• Bilo kakvi potezi ruskih lidera/političara/biznismena u regionu
• Rusko-srpski odnosi su naročito važni za nadgledanje. Nije važno što te dvije zemlje igraju prijateljsku fudbalsku utakmicu, o tome moramo sve da znamo
On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered “global intelligence” company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
EUROPE (TIER 2) ANALYTICAL GUIDANCE:
THEMES AND ISSUES TO MONITOR
BALKANS (SERBIA, CROATIA, BOSNIA, ALBANIA, MACEDONIA, MONTENEGRO, BULGARIA)
Security:
Security situation in the Balkans is complex and multifaceted. First, we need to keep an eye on any security concerns inBosnia. Any indication that ethnic groups inBosniaare looking for greater autonomy or that violence is again on the prowl. Splits between Croats and Muslims is particularly key. We need to be warned of any sign of soccer related violence, OC crime, anything that could coalesce into ethnic crime.Bosniais KEY for this region.
Organized crime needs to be followed carefully. We need to be kept abreast of any events in the Balkans that are OC related. The countries to watch in particular areCroatia(high OC activity),Macedonia,Montenegro(the entire country is OC, including the government),Bosnia(very high OC penetration, with Russian links so doubly important) and Albania/Kosovo (careful eye on Albanian mob activities).
Serbs inNorthern Kosovo, they can flare up at any time. Also, Albanians inPresovoValleyand Muslims in Sandzak (both inSerbia).
Rise in neo-Nazi violence, particularly in Vojvodina against Hungarians (Serbia),Croatia(against Roma and Serbs) and also anti-minority, anti-Pomak (Muslims) violence inBulgaria.
Protests, riots, union activity… It is not as organized as inWestern Europe, but milk protests inBulgariaor worker protests inBosniaare key. Remember, it was the strikes by Albanian miners in Kosovo back in the 1980s that in a way moved the region towards conflagration.
Any strange movements by Islamist terrorist groups in and out of the region.
Drug seizures and weapon seizures.
Political Issues:
Bosnia,Bosnia,Bosnia. Any split developing in Croatian-Muslim federation is key. Radicalization of Republica Srpska.
Politics withinSerbia: internal politics are very confusing, but we want to be kept abrest of almost anything that goes down there. Shifts can indicate new alliances that create new parties and such.
Montenegro: their road to EU is interesting, we want to know what OC/government is doing and to what extent are they interested in curbing OC activities that run the government.
Macedonian attempts to enter the EU and NATO are also something to keep an eye on.
International Relations:
Macedonia-Greecedispute…
Slovenia-Croatiadispute…
Serbiaand its relations with everyone.
Russian moves in the Balkans:
- We need to keep an eye out on any acquisitions of energy companies by the Russians in the region.
- Russiagiving loans to the region.
- Any movements by Russian leaders/politicians/businessmen to the region.
- Russia-Serbiarelationship is particularly important one for us to monitor. I don’t care if the two have a friendly soccer game, we should know about it.
EU – Balkan relations:
- Any threats by the EU thatBulgariais dragging its feet on corruption or that the Balkans are delaying with reforms.
- Any statements by the Commission, Council or the Enlargement Commissioner are important.
Economics:
Because of the global recession, any numbers coming out of the region — which are tougher to get than the rest of the world — are very important.
Watch for any labor/union/rioting due to the crisis. Don’t forget, the IMF austerity measures imposed onYugoslaviawas in part to blame for the start of the war there. We need to be aware of any economically motivated social discontentment.
Watch carefullySerbia,BosniaandCroatiain terms of economic statements.
Bulgariamay be in a lot of trouble as well.
Any sign thatWestern Europeis pulling on its development aid or what they want to give to the region is key as well.
IMF visits to the region.
Banking trouble, any mention of foreign banks in the region doing anything surprising, such as closing shop or preventing investments there.(Izvor:Javniservis)
